Tag Archives: the-professor

AFL theory of equalisation a myth after free agency!

footballAfter writing yesterday’s piece on AFL broadcast rights, I gave some thought to free agency, the trade period and whether the current AFL system is equitable to all clubs. Most stories that have been in the media recently talk of lower ranked clubs like Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and GWS losing players to the top dogs of the competition in Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Sydney or Geelong.

It seems most players want to go to a club that can challenge for a flag immediately or in the not too distant future. Take for example Mitch Clarke – he wants out of the Demons to go to Geelong (a usual top four finisher) and James Frawley appears certain to also leave the Demons to go to…..well you take your pick of the top clubs. His name has been mentioned in the same sentence as Hawthorn (this year’s premiers in case you missed it), Geelong and Fremantle. Haven’t heard any rumors that he was considering St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, GWS or staying at Melbourne.

What this means is that the stronger clubs get stronger as they pick off the good talent from the weaker clubs….and we know what that means. The weaker clubs get weaker and so the cycle continues. How is this different to the pre-draft days of the 1970’s and 1980’s when the size of the cheque book dictated the strength of the team and where you finished on the ladder. Seems to me we have replaced one bad system with another and it will only get worse as the years go by.crowd

Speaking of broadcast rights…..if the AFL becomes too much of a lop sided competition, I don’t know that it will foster interest in the game, get bums on seats and people watching on TV, all of which affects the amount of money the broadcasters are willing to pay for the content.

I’d suggest this should be a priority issue for the AFL to address.

AFL, broadcast rights, innovation!

mcgEven though the current AFL $1.25 billion broadcast rights deal does not expire until 2016, what better time to pump up the rights discussion than after an AFL Grand Final? With two years left on the deal, the subject appears in the media today with ‘talks on a new deal to open within weeks’.

That may be the case, but with the hammering the AFL got from diminishing crowds this season, I for one would be wary of how much money I’d invest in a product that is on the nose with a lot of fans. Add to that a schedule that throws up less than interesting contests ie. GWS v Gold Coast, GWS v Melbourne, Melbourne v anyone, 7.00pm matches on a Sunday, 7.00pm matches on Monday and I’d suggest that the dollars may not be there for a deal as big as the AFL expects (at least $3 billion over 10 years).

The AFL says that they have listened to the fans complaints about scheduling and the cost to families of attending games. I’ll am keen to see just what changes are actually made.

If the AFL want an increase then they should consider ‘innovation’ to help things along. As a suggestion, why not introduce conference style play similar to the NFL. Not only would this spice things up but would also solve some of the inequities of the current fixture. This could be accomplished by placing one team from each of SA, WA, NSW and Qld in separate conferences and then splitting the ten from Victoria between the two so that each conference has nine teams. A team would play each team in its own conference twice (16 matches) and each team in the other conference once making a season total of 25 matches.

The top four teams in each conference would progress to the final series with 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 playing in each conference, the winners of those games each playing in a preliminary final and then the winning team from each conference plays in the grand final.

The extra ‘productivity’ by the players (3 extra matches in a season) would justify the ever increasing salaries the players are receiving.

Wednesday rant – MLB and buying wins

baseballpicIn what endeavour would you be responsible for spending in excess of $203 million, have little or nothing to show for it results wise and still be in a job? In baseball that’s where. How does Brian Cashman, General Manager and Senior Vice President of the New York Yankees retain his job? The Yankees, who have all but been eliminated from post season play, have currently won 81 games. When viewed against their payroll (second highest in MLB), they pay about $2.5 million per win. The concept of ‘buying wins’ was adopted by Billy Beane and brought to the public’s attention in the book and film, Moneyball. By comparison, the other New York team, the Mets get better value for money as they pay about $1.17 million per win spending less in payroll and winning nearly as many games as the Yankees.

Probably the best result in 2014 has been returned by the Pittsburgh Pirates, who baseball17have qualified for the post season winning 86 games spending $908,000 per win. As for the Oakland A’s, they spend a little more than the Pirates at $970,000 per win and are still in the wildcard chase. The bottom line is getting value for money and the Yankees haven’t whilst the Pirates and A’s have. Maybe Mr Cashman and the Yankees need to re-think the strategy.

Professor’s Tuesday rant – EPL managers on the hot seat

man utdWho will be the first manager sacked in the Premier League this season? Louis van Gaal, head man at Manchester United must be a short priced favourite and we are only a few weeks into the campaign. After a 5-3 loss at Leicester City on the weekend (after Man U led 3-1) and sitting mid table with five points from five games, it is only a matter of time if results continue to go badly. How long before the Board bring back Sir Alex ?

Also on the hot seat must be Alan Pardew at Newcastle Steve-Bruce-and-Alan-PardewUnited. Lamenting at the foot of the table, things will need to change really quickly at St James’ Park for Pardew to hold his job! Hull City manager, Steve Bruce has already been tipped to slip into the Newcastle job with Alan Shearer as his off sider.

Whilst I think Van Gaal has the hotter seat given the expectations at Old Trafford, that Newcastle sources today said “the manager’s job was completely safe” must have Pardew feeling very uneasy.

The Gelding’s red hot selections for Caulfield on 20 September 2014

MarkThe Gelding’s attention is on his home track at Caulfield tomorrow and after last week’s stellar day on the punt he is primed and ready to go with some value bets that pack a punch!

As always the bets are on an each way and all up basis.

Caulfield

Race 5 Horse 8 – Spirit of Heaven
Race 6 Horse 1 – Spillway
Race 7 Horse 10 – Silent Achiever (for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 8 Horse 1 – Samaready (also for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 9 Horse 5 – Trust in a Gust

You can hear the Gelding discuss the results with the Professor and the panel this Sunday at 11.00am on Sportzfan Radio live from the Southern Football League Division 1 Grand Final at Springvale oval broadcasting on 88.3 Southern FM.

Good luck and good punting!

The Gelding

Gelding’s tips for 15 March 2014

Mar 13 2011 026The Gelding’s attention is out of State at Randwick today with his hunt for winners leaving no stone unturned. Last week’s selections were a mixed bag with some success with Solicit and Fiorente. He is looking for a better day today!

As always the bets are on an each way and all up basis.

Randwick

Race 3 Horse 7 – Junoob
Race 5 Horse 7 – Snitzerland
Race 7 Horse 2 – El Roca (for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 8 Horse 9 – Zoustar (also for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 9 Horse 12 – Cosmic Endeavour

The Gelding’s tips will be discussed by the Professor on Sportzfan Radio tomorrow at about 5.30pm.

Good luck and good punting!

The Gelding

Sportzfan Radio back on air this Sunday

MarkThe Professor will be back behind the microphone this Sunday from 5.00pm on 88.3 Southern FM with John O’Callaghan, Mordiboy (aka Fatman), Paul Dalligan and DC Coutta in the line up talking AFL, NRL, Paralympics, sports betting, the NRL Almanac and a whole lot more.

We’re back and better than ever!

 

Gelding’s tips for 15 February 2014

Mar 6 2011 010The Gelding’s attention is on Flemington tomorrow and he is certainly hoping for a change of form as, although he picked two winners, he was a bit wide of the mark with his other selections last week at Caulfield. He has put some extra work in this week and is sure these tips are ‘on the money’!

As always the bets are on an each way and all up basis.

Caulfield

Race 4 Horse 13 Mandela
Race 5 Horse 4 Scratchy Bottom (for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 6 Horse 4 Hucklebuck
Race 7 Horse 7 Samaready (also for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 9 Horse 8 Decircles

Good luck and good punting!

The Gelding

Gelding’s tips for 25 January 2014

MarkThe Gelding’s attention is on his home track at Caulfield today and with Australia Day just around the corner, he is urging punters to get out and have a wager* on some of his pre-Australia Day selections.

As always the bets are on an each way and all up basis.

Caulfield

Race 2 horse 5 – Iconic
Race 5 horse 5 – Whistle Baby
Race 6 horse 3 – Limes (for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 7 horse 8 – Quick Snitzel (also for the ladies at the Tennis club)

Good luck and good punting!

The Gelding

* always gamble responsibly!