All posts by @packers4

Gelding’s red hotties for 8 November 2014

Mar 13 2011 021The Gelding’s attention is at Flemington this Saturday for the last day of the Cup Carnival. After three winners last Saturday, the Gelding is looking at building on his good form.

As always, the bets are on an each way and all up basis.

Flemington

Race 2 Horse 14 – Cadillac Mountain
Race 5 Horse 3 – Le Roe
Race 6 Horse 10 – Chautauqua (for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 7 Horse 1 – Hooked (also for the ladies at the Tennis club)
Race 9 Horse 4 – Fast ‘n’ Rocking

Good luck and good punting!

The Gelding

Should Adrian Peterson be re-instated by NFL?

imageAdrian Peterson pleaded ‘no contest’ yesterday to a misdemeanour charge of reckless assault which arose out of him ‘punishing’ his child. He was fined $4,000.00 and ordered to perform 80 hours of community service.

With the legal proceedings out of the way, the question now is whether or not the NFL, through Commissioner Goodell, will re-instate Peterson and allow him to play the balance of the NFL season.  Since playing the first game, Peterson has missed seven games.

The NFL has said it will review the Court documents and other material prior to making a decision. Given the recent backlash over the handling of the Ray Rice affair, you can bet that the NFL will proceed with extreme caution in an effort to avoid a similar public outcry over lenient penalties.

Peterson must at least serve the minimum six match suspension for being involved in a ‘domestic violence’ situation. Given that he has been on full pay whilst on the Commissioner’s Permission List (by the way, the only player that is on that list), the suspension would see him penalised around $5.4 million of salary.

A decision by the NFL could still be some weeks away, so I would think that the six games plus games missed while a decision is being made, is sufficient penalty, bearing in mind that any second offence brings a lifetime ban.

The NFL is only the first hurdle for Peterson to get over though as the Minnesota Vikings have yet to indicate whether they will play him even if he becomes eligible. That may be a tougher sell for Peterson than the NFL.

Friday musing – Melbourne Cup, cricket, AFL…

I was disappointed to hear how Australia had fared in the cricket in Abu Dhabi overnight and it rekindled a gripe I have about Test cricket, particularly games against India, Pakistan & Sri Lanka. A test wicket should offer assistance to the quicks in the first session at least and provide a good contest between bat and ball. Australia has the most dangerous fast bowler in the world at the moment in MitchChris Barwin Hillsell Johnson and he gets his first and only wicket in the second session with the only wicket in the first session going to Lyon the spinner. If the ICC wants to promote Test cricket as the pinnacle of the game they have to have the fortitude to demand pitches which provide a proper contest. Having said that Younis Khan has to be congratulated for his three successive centuries which is a formidable feat no matter how good the wickets have been for batsmen. Speaking of batsmen, Australia’s performance in the 1st test was quite lamentable with only Warner & Johnson able to hold their heads up.

It was an amazing performance by Adelaide in the Cox plate last week, languishing at the back of the filed he made one of the longest sustained runs I have ever seen in the time honoured race. He was helped by the banked turns at the Valley and at the turn into the straight looked like he was going to win running away, but the length of his run told in the final stages and Fawkner and the others on his inside pushed him all the way to the line. It was an even more memorable performance when you consider that he is only a 3yo and because of the difference in breeding schedules in Europe he had to carry the weight of a 4yo in the Plate. However, I do wonder why they gave a colt a female name, what next a filly named Sydney?

Moving on to the AFL fixture I note that Essendon are again playing the Demons in a home game at the MCG. The Bombers have hosted Melbourne in at least the last 4 games at the MCG and have lost 3 of them in circumstances where they have started warm favourites each time. Everyone knows Melbourne perform poorly at Etihad, but we keep playing them at the G. Why? I was also perplexed to note that the Bombers only play 2 Friday night games, both against North Melbourne. While the Bombers didn’t win too many of their Friday night fixtures this year, they put on some pretty good games against Hawthorn, Geelong & Sydney. Speaking from the perspective of my own team, not a great draw in my opinion.

In passing I think Paul Gallen is obviously pretty stupid for his Tweet insulting the NRL chiefs, but a $50,000 fine!! That is hefty and I question if it really fits the crime. $5-10,000 would have sent the same message.

Have a great weekend.

Kurtley Beale shouldn’t pull on the Wallabies jumper again

bealeThere comes a time when even the most talented of players need to be cast adrift when their behaviour continually creates problems off the field. Kurtley Beale certainly falls into that category given his indiscretions of the last eighteen months culminating with a $45,000.00 fine for sending an offensive text message to a female staffer.

Beale has had a ‘colourful’ career with a number of brushes with the law since 2010. I don’t intend to look back at earlier incidents, but if we simply look at the recent past since early 2013, there is plenty to be troubled about. Starting with a fight with teammates in March 2013, when Beale was part of the Melbourne Rebels squad playing in South Africa, he was sent home in disgrace, put on an alcohol ban, fined and suspended indefinitely by Rebels management. Regrettably, the Rebel’s indefinite suspension did not last all that long.

After returning to the Rebels side, within two months, Beale admitted to breaking the alcohol ban and was stood down for breaching behavioural guidelines. Less than a month after, in June 2013, Beale was photographed at a fast food outlet at 3.50am several days before the second test against the British and Irish Lions. The Rebels found that Beale had not been drinking. I don’t see that as the point though. No player, who is serious about representing his country, would (or should) be out at that hour of the morning before a very important game.

Fast forward to the most recent indiscretion. Beale still has not learned anything as far as I am concerned. His statement that he has been ‘vindicated’ misses the point completely. The reason for vindication? Beale was found guilty of only sending one offensive text to a female staffer….and not two.

Along with the fine, there should have been a lengthy suspension. Nowhere in Beale’s history do I see genuine contrition or remorse. His apology to the staffer seems to have been motivated purely on the grounds of self preservation evidenced by the request to ‘not tell anyone’ that accompanied the apology.

The Wallabies will never be a power in world rugby while they tolerate any player behaving in this manner. What example are the ARU setting to young players? Do they realise off field behaviour and on field performance are very much related? With the World Cup looming, I doubt Australia’s performance will improve very much from where we are at the moment…..maybe fourth in the World.

Pelchen out at St Kilda is troubling

pelchyI have said many times before, that if I was in a position to influence an AFL club, the first person I would hire would be Chris Pelchen.

Why? He has a very good pedigree having had stints at Hawthorn (x2) Port Adelaide and St Kilda, he wants to be successful and he has a blue print for putting together a list of players that can take the ultimate step.

I have read quite a few comments on social media from St Kilda supporters saying they are glad he is gone. I would imagine that those supporters felt badly about players that were traded over the last few seasons and about the performance of their Club during that time.

I would suggest that those supporters consider that when Chris took over he was presented with an aging list that, through lack of vision had not been rejuvenated. He also had to deal with a diabolical total player payments problem and ensure that the up and coming young guns were re-contracted before they slipped into free agency. Needless to say he accomplished that and also had time to foster a new market in New Zealand and establish the Saints player academy.  By the way, I have relied on the St Kilda CEO’s summary of what Chris had done for St Kilda in putting that list together.

But, clearly that was not enough and to quote Matt Finnis, the Saints wanted to ‘drive further development in their high performance programs’.

Good luck is all I can say as rebuilding properly is all about timing and careful planning. Areas I think the Saints aren’t good at. I say this as parting company with the Head of Football who has control over the player list several weeks before the AFL draft seems a very strange decision indeed.

10 years on, Michael Phelps has learned nothing

phelpsIn 2004, the same year as the Athens Olympic Games, Michael Phelps was charged with driving under the influence of alcohol and he was placed on probation without a conviction being recorded. Wind forward ten years and once again Phelps is in hot water having been charged with a second DUI (he allegedly blew 0.14, well over the 0.08 limit in Maryland).

As if that wasn’t bad enough, he was also charged with excessive speed (allegedly recorded at 84mph in a 45mph zone) and crossing double lane lines meaning he was a big danger to other road users at the time.

Like most high profile athletes, Phelps has followed the usual route after tangling with the law. He is taking time out from his chosen field of sports endeavour to attend a course (or two). In Phelps case, so he can (reportedly) ‘better understand himself’.

There’s only one thing Phelps needs to understand here and that is drinking and driving is illegal. End of discussion.

In swimming, if you change lanes during a race, you are disqualified. It is disturbing that USA swimming don’t see this set of circumstances as disqualifiable as they are allegedly taking no action, notwithstanding this is Phelps’ second offence.

What message is that sending to the rest of society?

MLB playoff moneyball selections

baseball16With the MLB playoffs having commenced, I thought it might be interesting to re-visit team payrolls and look at the teams still vying for a World Series spot.

The division pennant winners (with 2014 payroll in brackets) were:

American League

East – Baltimore Orioles ($107.5 million)
Central – Detroit Tigers ($162.3 million)
West – LA Angels ($155.7 million) * best record in the AL for wins/losses
Wild card entry – Kansas City Royals ($92.1 million) and Oakland A’s ($83.5 million)

National League

East – Washington Nationals ($134.7 million) * best record in the NL for wins/losses
Central – St Louis Cardinals ($111.1 million)
West – LA Dodgers ($235.3 million)
Wild card entry – San Francisco Giants ($154.2 million) and Pittsburgh Pirates ($78.2 million)

The American League has already played its Wild Card game with the Royals coming out on top over Billy Beane’s A’s. The National League plays today with the Giants and Pirates playing in a winner take all game to advance in the playoffs.

The ALDS sees the Orioles play the Tigers while the Angels take on the Royals.

In the NLDS, the Cardinals play the Dodgers while the Nationals play the winner of the Pirates/Giants game.

Going on strength of payroll alone, it should be a Dodgers v Tigers World Series, however, given many teams with high payroll haven’t even made the playoffs that clearly isn’t the sole determining factor.

I likebaseball17 the Royals to continue their fairy tale run to play the Nationals in the decider.

One thing for certain, Billy Beane knows that even $83.5 million per year wasn’t enough to get the A’s over the line in 2014!

AFL theory of equalisation a myth after free agency!

footballAfter writing yesterday’s piece on AFL broadcast rights, I gave some thought to free agency, the trade period and whether the current AFL system is equitable to all clubs. Most stories that have been in the media recently talk of lower ranked clubs like Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and GWS losing players to the top dogs of the competition in Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Sydney or Geelong.

It seems most players want to go to a club that can challenge for a flag immediately or in the not too distant future. Take for example Mitch Clarke – he wants out of the Demons to go to Geelong (a usual top four finisher) and James Frawley appears certain to also leave the Demons to go to…..well you take your pick of the top clubs. His name has been mentioned in the same sentence as Hawthorn (this year’s premiers in case you missed it), Geelong and Fremantle. Haven’t heard any rumors that he was considering St Kilda, Western Bulldogs, GWS or staying at Melbourne.

What this means is that the stronger clubs get stronger as they pick off the good talent from the weaker clubs….and we know what that means. The weaker clubs get weaker and so the cycle continues. How is this different to the pre-draft days of the 1970’s and 1980’s when the size of the cheque book dictated the strength of the team and where you finished on the ladder. Seems to me we have replaced one bad system with another and it will only get worse as the years go by.crowd

Speaking of broadcast rights…..if the AFL becomes too much of a lop sided competition, I don’t know that it will foster interest in the game, get bums on seats and people watching on TV, all of which affects the amount of money the broadcasters are willing to pay for the content.

I’d suggest this should be a priority issue for the AFL to address.

AFL, broadcast rights, innovation!

mcgEven though the current AFL $1.25 billion broadcast rights deal does not expire until 2016, what better time to pump up the rights discussion than after an AFL Grand Final? With two years left on the deal, the subject appears in the media today with ‘talks on a new deal to open within weeks’.

That may be the case, but with the hammering the AFL got from diminishing crowds this season, I for one would be wary of how much money I’d invest in a product that is on the nose with a lot of fans. Add to that a schedule that throws up less than interesting contests ie. GWS v Gold Coast, GWS v Melbourne, Melbourne v anyone, 7.00pm matches on a Sunday, 7.00pm matches on Monday and I’d suggest that the dollars may not be there for a deal as big as the AFL expects (at least $3 billion over 10 years).

The AFL says that they have listened to the fans complaints about scheduling and the cost to families of attending games. I’ll am keen to see just what changes are actually made.

If the AFL want an increase then they should consider ‘innovation’ to help things along. As a suggestion, why not introduce conference style play similar to the NFL. Not only would this spice things up but would also solve some of the inequities of the current fixture. This could be accomplished by placing one team from each of SA, WA, NSW and Qld in separate conferences and then splitting the ten from Victoria between the two so that each conference has nine teams. A team would play each team in its own conference twice (16 matches) and each team in the other conference once making a season total of 25 matches.

The top four teams in each conference would progress to the final series with 1 v 4 and 2 v 3 playing in each conference, the winners of those games each playing in a preliminary final and then the winning team from each conference plays in the grand final.

The extra ‘productivity’ by the players (3 extra matches in a season) would justify the ever increasing salaries the players are receiving.